NEWS
Each year there is a player that outperforms their draft position or preseason expectations and 2012 will be no different for fantasy football players. The difference that separates most championship teams is their ability to find these players whether it be in the draft or via waivers when an opportunity strikes. Often times these breakout players can be seen as a reach when the draft is over but turn into finger pointing and “I told you so” players for their owners to gloat all season long. The question is are you ready to select a breakout player in your mind when the time comes. Here are the 2012 breakout fantasy football players from the viewpoint of the Fantasy Football Life columnists:
Quarterbacks
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – It has been 10 years since Chicago has had a receiver reach 1,000 yards. Marty Booker to be exact…I know disgusting right? Well Jay Cutler finally has some targets. An offensive line on the other hand, who knows? The almighty Gabe Carimi is supposedly healthy now and will help the Bears’ dreaded offensive line, or at least that’s what the front office is praying. Mike Martz is gone (exit 5-7 step drop backs). Mike Tice is in (enter 3-5 step drop backs). Jeremy Bates is reunited again with Jay, who says Bates is one of his favorite coaches. Brandon Marshall is here. Chicago drafted Alshon Jeffery to fill the deep threat that the Bears have been missing since...well forever. Earl Bennett has grown and been reliable. Devin Hester is somewhere in the mix though Johnny Knox might not play a down this year. Still Chicago finally has some better targets for Jay Cutler, so a breakout season is in the works here. This is going to be one of Jay Cutler’s most productive years in recent history. We all know about the connection of him and Marshall back in the Denver days. Two consecutive 1,000 yard seasons and NOBODY in the NFL had more receptions besides the great Wes Welker. I know Cutler isn’t really that “likeable” of a guy, but c’mon people! Robert Griffin III currently has a higher ADP (8.06) over Jay Cutler’s (9.06). Big Ben is also being drafted ahead of Jay. Sorry, but there is no way I would ever draft RGIII over Cutler that early. No thank you. Big Ben possibly, but Cutler still should turn out statistically better than both of those guys. – Michael J. Igyarto
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan has quietly finished has a top 8 fantasy quarterback the last couple of seasons now so you know he can be solid. Considering many are ranking him around the 10th best quarterback or lower, I think you may find this year’s Matt Stafford. I touted Matt Stafford prior to last season until the cow’s came home (not really my kind of analogy up in the Northwest but we can roll with it) and I’m not ready to talk about Ryan on that level but I do think he certainly can challenge for top 5. He has weapons everywhere: Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony G, a speedy Harry Douglas in the slot, a developing Darren Sproles clone in Jaquizz Rodgers, and a running came to keep defenses honest. Most importantly, he got a new offensive coordinator this year that wants to emphasize the vertical passing game and more no huddle offense. The Falcons want to become more like the Saints and Packers and Matt Ryan is their key that they are ready to unleash. – Kevin Nelson
Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers – How can a guy who threw for over 3,000 yards and 17 touchdowns be considered a breakout player? Consider this; he did all the aforementioned with a great Tight End and mediocre receivers. With the addition of Mario Manningham, Smith gets a reliable target who provides the threat of the deep ball. Manningham will also open the middle of the field for Vernon Davis to destroy opposing secondaries. Look for Michael Crabtree to have a fire lit under him with the addition of Manningham. Matthew Berry has him listed as his 17th overall Quarterback going into the 2012-13 season. I see him having the possibility to be a top 10-12 fantasy quarterback. – Anthony Fusilli
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins – This one may be fairly obvious but if you want a backup quarterback with potential for greatness how could you not be intrigued by what RG3 brings. He fits perfectly into Mike Shanahan’s offensive system, rookie QBs are having more success than ever in this new age passing NFL, the man has freak skills, and every report from OTAs having absolutely raved about his development. Don’t put the expectation of Cam Newton on him, but don’t be afraid to dream. The kid is a special talent. – Kevin Nelson
Running Backs
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – And continuing with this one. LaGarrette Blount had a nice run. (sorry for the pun) He had some fun Sportscenter highlights but he does some fundamental things VERY poorly. He fumbles a lot, he isn’t very good at the goal line, he can’t catch out of the backfield, and most importantly he is not a very good blocker. A new hardnosed coach coming in will not tolerate such misfortunes. Martin has 3 down potential in the mold of Ray Rice and Head Coach Greg Schiano is supposedly smitten by Martin. I think Martin has the chance to make a big time impact this season and should easily be the choice in Tampa Bay in what could be an upstart offense. – Kevin Nelson
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals – I was thinking of putting him in the “sleeper” category, but I don’t think that is the proper term for the Law Firm this season. In New England, BGE was part of a 3 and sometimes 4-man rotation in the backfield. He had 181 rushing attempts last season, and rushed for 667 yards. With Cedric Benson gone, BJGE will see close to 300 carries this season. Throw in his average of 3.6 yards per carry and you are looking at a 1,000 yard rusher with double digit touchdowns in 2012. Oh, and BJGE does not fumble. Sure he will have to face the Ravens and the Steelers twice, so he might not blow up the stat sheet every week, but Ellis is being undervalued. You can call this a breakout season for BJGE, who is being drafted on average late 4th to 5th Round. – Michael J. Igyarto
Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns – Of all of the guys I have listed, this guy is the least qualified for the “breakout” term based on my definition because he is becoming rated so highly very quickly. But, I still list him here for the simple reason that he is coming from zero. He has never proven anything in the NFL but I think he has the potential to be a top 5 pick next season. He has elite talent, he has opportunity, and is has a quality o line in front of him. Rookie runners have not had huge success in the past couple years but I think this year will buck that trend, beginning with this guy. – Kevin Nelson
Shonn Greene, New York Jets, RB – With the Jets saying their once again going to the “Ground and Pound” philosophy, look for Greene to be a thousand yard rusher this season. Mark Sanchez is not a great Quarterback and will have his passing load shortened while having Greene’s workload is expanded. As long as Greene stays healthy, look for him to get around 300 touches while hitting the 10 touchdown mark. – Anthony Fusilli
Michael Bush, Chicago Bears – If you have read my articles, seen my rankings so far, or checked out our team in the Fantasy Football Index, you will see I am high on Bush. I have liked Bush since his rookie year in Oakland and he has never disappointed. Every time Bush has gotten a chance he has shined. Now, he still does not have a starting role which limits his upside, BUT I do not have a great feeling on Matt Forte for a couple reasons; his contract situation, his goal line reps, his decrease in receptions, and his perhaps balky knees. From Steven Jackson a few years ago, to Chris Johnson last year, running backs that hold out tend to have very down seasons, a huge red flag for Forte. Forte was already one of the worst backs at the goal line, and now Bush will take away any doubt. With Brandon Marshall in town and Alshon Jeffery recently drafted Matt Forte will not lead the team in receptions which was a huge part of his value. You then look at the report that Chicago is scared about the health of his knees and you have a huge risk with a potential star in the waiting. Bush will give you yards and goal line touchdowns in his committee as is, and could finish top 10 if something goes wrong with Forte. – Kevin Nelson
Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots – I know, New England is a passing team on every down. I get it. The thing is, BenJarvus Green-Ellis had 24 touchdowns the last two years. 24 touchdowns in 410 carries. New England is a passing team, but has no problem rushing at the goal line. Joseph Addai is no guarantee to make the team, and judging from what we saw in glimpses last season, my money is on Ridley’s talent to win out. He won’t be a 300 carry guy, but a lesser talented Green-Ellis had over 1000 yards and 13 TDs just two years ago on 229 carries. A more talented Ridley could top that. – Kevin Nelson
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons – Julio Jones had a very impressive rookie season catching 54 balls for 959 yards, along with 8 touchdowns. Roddy White is a great receiver and all, but Julio is now top dog in the A. White will have a smaller role in the new offense ran by Dirk Koetter. White even accepted this and publicly said, “I know that sounds crazy, but we’ve got other guys out there that can play, Julio Jones is going to be a big part of the offense this year.” This is coming from a 3-time pro bowler who has been 1st and 2nd in receptions in the NFL the past 2 years. Jones’ current ADP is 3.08. Grab him while you can, this should be a fantastic sophomore season for JJ. – Michael J. Igyarto
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs – Despite the Chiefs' offensive struggles last season, most notably at the quarterback position, Dwayne Bowe still notched 81 receptions for 1,159 yards and five touchdowns. With a better quarterback, and stronger running game, Bowe could easily challenge to be the best fantasy receiver in the league not named Johnson. With Jonathan Baldwin emerging opposite him, teams won't be able to slide coverage towards the veteran receiver. Bowe in single coverage is bad news for the defense, great news for fantasy owners. Bowe's most significant improvement over last season should be in the redzone. Prior to last season he had 31 touchdowns in four seasons, but 15 of those came in year four. Doubling his total of five last year is a realistic expectation this year. – Cian Fahey
Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos – In 5 games started last season, with Tim Tebow as his quarterback, DT finished with 551 yards and 4 touchdowns. And that doesn’t include his 204 yard TD performance against the Steelers in the playoffs! If that wasn’t enough to excite someone going into his next year, how about this? His team added some guy named Peyton Manning to throw to him. The number 1 receiver with great size and athletic ability in a Peyton Manning led offense? Saying anything else is a repetitive read. – Kevin Nelson
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Wallace is still holding out in Pittsburgh. All hope is not lost for some though, as his teammates have repeatedly said they expect him back, particularly Steelers CB Ike Taylor, who keeps insisting that Wallace will be in training camp. However, the Steelers don’t have the type of money that Mike Wallace is asking for. Again, in this situation, Mike will end up under my “don’t draft rule.” Either Wallace is going to be paid big, or unhappy and most likely standing on the sidelines. The man to take advantage of in this situation should be Antonio Brown. Mike Wallace has a current ADP of 3.12, while Brown’s is 6.02. Why go three rounds earlier on a guy that you isn’t happy with his pay, and may even holdout? Those who drafted Vincent Jackson in 2010 know what I’m talking about. Brown had 69 receptions for 1,108 receiving yards last season. The low-point was the fact that he only recorded 2 touchdowns. Patience is a virtue though my friends. The fact that he had over 1,000 receiving yards with Wallace on the field is impressive. Now imagine if there really is hold out? Antonio Brown becomes fantasy gold in my opinion. Taking him 6th round or later is a safe bet, and I myself will be looking for him in all my drafts. – Michael J. Igyarto
Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers – Goodbye Vincent Jackson and hello Mr. Floyd. In case you haven’t noticed yet, I am really high on the way guys finish the last season. I think it plays a big part on their confidence and momentum going into the next season. After missing weeks 9-12, Floyd amassed 455 yards and 4 touchdowns in the final 5 games of the season. With Vincent Jackson out of town and newly acquired Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal and young Vincent Brown as the only other wide receivers, Floyd has a chance to take a stranglehold on Philip Rivers favorite outside target. He will still battle Antonio Gates, but we all know Rivers loves to push the ball down the field and Floyd has the potential to really excel. – Kevin Nelson
Tight Ends
Jared Cook, Tennessee Titans – I had Jared Cook as a sleeper last year and he provided some quality games for his owners. I, like I think he is, am ready to take the next step and list him as a full blown breakout candidate. Cook had all world talent at tight end; size, speed, and athleticism, he just needed to put everything together. Final 3 games: 21 catches, 335 yards, 1 touchdown. With Chris Johnson holding safeties, Kenny Britt back out wide, and newly drafted Kendall Wright providing another speed threat outside, Cook could thrive. – Kevin Nelson
Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers, TE – While everyone is enamored by the Pittsburgh Steelers young stars at receiver, and while most expect Jericho Cotchery to easily slip into Hines Ward's old role, Heath Miller should have a bigger year this season. Considering Miller is one of the last starting tight ends teams will take in fantasy, he should be a great late addition with the potential to be a top 10 tight end. Miller's production has fallen the past two seasons since his career year in 2009 for multiple reasons. The first, and less important, being that the Steelers' receivers emerged into big time threats. The second is what really impacts Miller's fantasy status however. Last year Miller spent a lot of time as a blocker, at times even lining up in the backfield, on passing plays. With an improved offensive line, Miller should spend a lot more time running routes while he becomes Ben Roethlisberger's most trusted target now that Hines Ward has moved on. Many expect Ward's targets to go to Jericho Cotchery. Cotchery will fill Ward's role at receiver, but Roethlisberger will likely look to Miller more often on third downs and in the red-zone. Trust is an important part of Roethlisberger's game. – Cian Fahey
Jacob Tamme, Denver Broncos – In the one season Tamme got his chance to shine while taking over for an injured Dallas Clark, he racked up 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in 8 games started. That was with Peyton Manning. When Manning signed with Denver, one of the first moves the Broncos made was going and signing Jacob Tamme. Coincidence? Look, if Peyton wants this guy, you should too. – Kevin Nelson
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